Florida Senate Democratic Leader Lauren Book speaks in favor of Amendment 4 at a rally on Sunday, Oct. 27, 2024, in Esplanade Park in Fort Lauderdale.
The proposed amendments to the Florida Constitution dealing with abortion rights and recreational marijuana are close to passage, a Florida Atlantic University poll released Tuesday found, but both are right on the edge.
Amendment 4, which would enshrine abortion rights in the state Constitution, has support of 58% of Florida voters, with 32% opposed and 11% saying they don’t know.
Though that’s a strong majority, it’s just short of the 60% threshold Florida requires for passage of a constitutional amendment. Winning would require a relatively small share of those who said they still don’t know how they’ll vote to hit 60% — if those voters go all the way through the ballot to the proposed amendments.
Amendment 3, which would legalize recreational marijuana for adults, is faring marginally better.
FAU’s poll found 60% of voters favoring the marijuana amendment, with 34% opposed and 6% undecided.
Fierce campaigns are being waged on both sides of both amendments, as anyone who flips on local TV news and sees the barrage of pro and con ads can attest.
Gov. Ron DeSantis is leading the opposition to both, hoping he can show voters nationwide that he can prevail on major issues in his home state. He’s marshaled the opposition, including spending state government money on advertising opposing the amendments.
Kevin Wagner, an FAU political scientist, said neither amendment is a sure thing. If a simple majority of 50% plus one was all that was required for passage, he said they’d be sure things.
Wagner is also co-director of FAU’s PolCom Lab, a collaboration of the School of Communication and Multimedia Studies and Department of Political Science, which conducted the poll.
“People forget that 60% of voters is a tough number to get,” Wagner said. He said both “have a legitimate shot of hitting that 60. But some variance in turnout or shift in the mood could really affect them.”
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Harris has a slight lead in FAU national poll; Trump far ahead in Florida
Abortion
Majorities of men and women support Amendment 4, but support is much higher among women.
Men support it 54% to 36%, an advantage of 18 percentage points.
Women support the amendment 61% to 28%, an advantage of 33 percentage points.
Democrats are overwhelmingly supportive, with 93% saying they’d vote yes and 4% opposed.
Independents also support the amendment, 60% to 24%.
Republicans are opposed, with 56% saying they’d vote no and 30% yes.
The Republican and Democratic breakdowns are almost identical to the way supporters of Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump say they’d vote.
Marijuana
The marijuana amendment has greater support among men than women.
Among men, 63% support and 33% oppose the amendment, a 30-point advantage.
Among women, 58% support and 35% oppose the amendment, a 23-point advantage
Democrats support the legalization proposal 83% to 13%.
Independents also support it, 63% to 29%.
Republicans oppose legalization, 52% to 42%.
Harris supporters overwhelmingly (81% to 14%) support it, but Trump supporters are more evenly divided.
Unlike DeSantis, Trump said he supports Amendment 3. People who say they plan to vote for Trump oppose it 52% to 43%.
Fine print
The Florida poll of 913 registered voters was conducted Oct. 19 to 27 by Mainstreet Research for Florida Atlantic University’s PolCom Lab.
The survey used text messaging to reach voters with a link to complete the survey. It has a margin of error equivalent to plus or minus 3 percentage points for the full survey of Democrats, Republicans and independents.
However, the margin of error for smaller groups, such as Republicans or Democrats or men and women, would be higher because the sample sizes are smaller.
Anthony Man can be reached at aman@sunsentinel.com and can be found @browardpolitics on Bluesky, Threads, Facebook and Mastodon.