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Mere hours after the results of the US election became clear, sending North American cannabis stocks into freefall, Germany’s ruling traffic light coalition all but collapsed, throwing the future of Europe’s largest and most promising cannabis market into uncertain territory.
On November 06, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz dismissed Finance Minister Christian Lindler (Freie Demokratische Partei, or the Free Democratic Party) in a major escalation of political tensions that had been simmering for months.
This development not only sets the stage for a vote of no confidence in the Bundestag in January and an early election by the end of March, but threatens to undermine the cannabis reforms, which the coalition has worked for years to implement.
With polls pointing to an increasingly familiar swing to the right should an election take place next year, the potential future of Pillar 2 is now more unclear than ever, while efforts are already underway to argue for a repeal of Pillar 1.
What happened?
In a press conference held on Wednesday evening (November 06), Scholz stated that Lindner, the leader of the FDP, had repeatedly broken his trust by prioritising his party’s interests over national unity.
The Chancellor described Lindner’s actions as ‘egoistic’, asserting that Lindner’s rejection of economic reform proposals, which included measures for Germany’s energy sector and relief packages for struggling industries, left him no choice. Scholz said his decision to dismiss Lindner aimed to ‘avert harm to the German people’, prompting the FDP to withdraw from the coalition.
Negotiations among the coalition leaders had reached a breaking point during Wednesday’s crisis summit. Scholz reportedly offered Lindner extensive concessions to avoid the coalition’s collapse, including reforms to stabilize the economy and a new aid package for Ukraine.
However, Lindner refused, instead suggesting that the coalition should pursue new elections. Scholz then issued Lindner an ultimatum: support the proposals or face dismissal. Lindner’s resistance ultimately led Scholz to proceed with his firing, adding that Lindner’s push for early elections signaled a final breach of trust.
The breakdown of the coalition comes amid deeply troubling poll numbers for the SPD, Greens, and FDP, who all risk significant losses in an early election. The SPD’s poll numbers hover around 15-16%, the Greens at 10%, and the FDP at a precarious 3-4%, raising concerns about the FDP’s return to the Bundestag. Meanwhile, the Union, led by Friedrich Merz’s CDU, sits at over 30% in recent polls, placing it in a favorable position should elections proceed.
Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who plays a key role in the election process, has scheduled a meeting with Merz on Thursday to discuss potential next steps in the ongoing government crisis.
While Scholz has since committed to pushing through pending legislation by Christmas, including tax relief and pension stabilization measures, the recent breakdown of the coalition between the SPD, Greens, and FDP has further complicated the future of cannabis policy in Germany.
With the Christmas recess and upcoming new elections in early 2025, the possibility of establishing regulatory clarity for cannabis pilot projects appears to be dwindling. There are now serious doubts as to whether the SPD and Greens can push through the necessary funding for staff to supervise the projects or finalise the regulatory framework for CanG before the elections.
What does this mean for cannabis policy?
The CDU has long expressed a strong interest in rolling back cannabis reforms. While full re-criminalisation is unlikely, the Union could implement more restrictive measures if they take power. In recent remarks, SPD drug policy spokesperson Dirk Heidenblut conceded that a CDU-led government might seek to tighten CanG policies.
Co-Founder and CEO of German medical cannabis company Bloomwell, Niklas Kouparanis, believes that the industry will continue to move in the right direction regardless of the election result.
“The good news is that the cannabis sector will continue to be steered in the right direction, regardless of who becomes the next German chancellor. A great deal of progress has already been made, and we won’t be backpedaling,” he explained.
“If that were to be the case, first, the CDU would have to form a coalition with one of the three former traffic light coalition parties. Additionally, a complete withdrawal of the CanG bill that has already been implemented since April would be a total logistical nightmare. Even extremely reactionary politicians wouldn’t have the time or motivation to take that on.”
However, he believes that restrictions on both cannabis clubs and the general decriminalisation of cannabis following the implementation of CanG could be imposed.
Furthermore, Pillar 2’s pilot programmes ‘will no longer see the light of day in the near future’.
“The reclassification of medical cannabis, on the other hand, is entirely in line with the CDU’s wishes and continues to be one of Germany’s most promising industries. In opposition, the party itself had called for easier access to medical cannabis long before reclassification became a reality. Accessible and affordable medical care is the common cannabis denominator of all parties that could be part of the new government,” Mr Koupranis continued.
The German Cannabis Business Association (BvCW), also believes the crucial and hard-fought Hemp Legalisation Act, currently in the administrative process, is now also under threat.
Its President, Dirk Heitepriem, said: “Germany is falling far behind in Europe and the world in the cultivation, research, and use of industrial hemp. We cannot wait any longer. The Hemp Liberalization Act must therefore be passed by the Bundestag as soon as possible to provide farmers and the industry with legal certainty and to make Germany competitive in this field again.
The group has called on legislators to ‘prioritise this law’, citing the swathe of agricultural businesses, processors and trader which are counting on the elimination of ‘intoxication clause’.
The CDU is already pushing for legislative rollbacks
On November 13, the Rhineland-Palatinate Landtag will debate a CDU proposal urging the state government to back a repeal of Germany’s cannabis legalisation law.
Titled ‘Stop Organised Crime: Curb the Black Market, Protect the Population, End Cannabis Legalisation,’ the CDU’s motion argues that current legislation, particularly the absence of Pillar 2, fails to control organised crime and ensure public safety.
Without Pillar 2—a regulatory framework meant to oversee licensed adult-use cannabis pilot projects—the CDU claims that legalisation inadvertently strengthens the black market rather than diminishing it.
The proposal highlights familiar criticisms of cannabis reform, arguing that legalisation drives demand and promotes consumption while lacking the regulatory capacity to combat illegal trade effectively.
It references insights from The Association of German Criminal Police Officers (BDK) which notes that full suppression of black-market activity remains elusive, even in fully legalised countries like Canada. The CDU adds that inadequate licensing and regulatory delays mean few legal cannabis cultivation permits are issued, leading consumers to rely on medical cannabis or home cultivation, which the CDU views as problematic.
They argue that scaling back legalisation to restrict cannabis to medical use would create a more manageable framework, potentially easing criminal influence in the market.
Business of Cannabis will continue to report on the developing situation in the coming days.
“}]] Mere hours after the results of the US election became clear, sending North American cannabis stocks into freefall, Germany’s ruling traffic light coalition all but collapsed, throwing the future of Europe’s largest and most promising cannabis market into uncertain territory. Read More
