Florida may not be among this year’s battleground states, but multiple pitched political battles there are keeping the Sunshine State in the 2024 election spotlight.
There’s no drama in the presidential race: Republican Donald Trump has a lock on his home state and its 30 electoral votes, polls show. But farther down the ballot things get more interesting — and nationally consequential.
Most of the attention centers on Amendment 4, a proposed constitutional amendment that would dismantle Florida’s fledgling six-week abortion ban.
Smarting after seven straight state ballot losses since Roe v. Wade’s demise returned the abortion issue back to the states, pro-life supporters viewed Florida as their best shot yet at victory, given the state’s high bar of 60% required for passage. But the momentum is moving in the opposite direction, with recent polling showing 61% in favor.
Florida also has a competitive race for U.S. Senate, pitting one-term incumbent pro-life Republican Rick Scott, who is leading in the polls, against former congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who advocates for so-called abortion rights, in a race that could decide the balance of the Senate. Given Vice President Kamala Harris’ vow to eliminate the filibuster to codify “abortion rights” nationwide, which would allow for laws to be passed in the Senate with a simple majority, the Florida Senate race’s implications could be profound.
Finally, another constitutional amendment would legalize marijuana, a measure, like Amendment 4, the state’s Catholic bishops strongly oppose.
All of this year’s election activity is unfolding while large swathes of Florida look like an actual battle zone, courtesy of a pair of fierce hurricanes that recently devastated the state, causing an estimated $34 billion in damage.
“There’s so many people who are still displaced,” Susan MacManus, a distinguished professor emerita at the University of South Florida, told Register. “They’ve lost everything. They’re struggling with FEMA. Milton is still dominating things. People are still hurting.”
For Miami Archbishop Thomas Wenski, the hectic election season is cause for both concern and hope.
“I think everybody is concerned about the direction of the country,” Archbishop Wenski told the Register. “In the culture and even in the state of Florida, we are facing strong headwinds. But we expect Florida to remain a red state. We have, let’s say, a measured hope we will be able to prevail on Amendment 4, which would turn us into a very radical pro-abortion state.”
Abortion Amendment
As a result of a new state law that came into force in April, abortion after six weeks’ gestation is currently illegal in Florida, with exceptions for the life of the mother and fatal fetal abnormalities.
Amendment 4 would amend the state Constitution to say that “no law shall prohibit, penalize, delay, or restrict abortion before viability or when necessary to protect the patient’s health, as determined by the patient’s healthcare provider.”
On Oct. 14, a poll by Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy of Jacksonville, which surveyed 625 likely voters in early October, found that 61% of Floridians would vote to approve the amendment, which resembles results found in other polls in recent weeks.
The 61% figure is an improvement over two other polling results from the summer that showed support for the amendment topping out in the mid-50s, suggesting momentum is with the pro-abortion side.
A major reason for the shift is that pro-abortion advocacy groups have drastically outraised and outspent their opposition on billboard and television advertisements. According to an AP analysis, pro-abortion groups in Florida have raised more than $60 million in their efforts, while pro-life groups have raised about $9 million. In total, pro-abortion-rights groups have purchased ad buys over pro-life groups by a 2-1 margin.
“In the past week or so, the pro-Amendment 4 side has been very prevalent on the airwaves, but also full of lies,” Archbishop Wenski said. “That might show some of their desperation, but at the same time they’re lying about what the amendment is, and that might help them win their majority.”
While all state pro-abortion ballot amendments since Roe was overturned have passed, none has garnered more than 60% of the vote.
The potential passage of Amendment 4 would be a severe blow to the pro-life movement, which has come up short in each state ballot initiative come up for a vote following the fall of Roe v. Wade in the summer of 2022, including in deep red states such as Kansas and Kentucky. If pro-lifers cannot secure a victory at the polls in a reliably Republican state that requires a 60% threshold to amend its constitution, many have asked where it could win.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, for one, has said that a loss over Amendment 4 would mean “the end of the pro-life movement.”
Pro=life doctors stand with Archbishop Thomas Wenski against Amendment 4.(Photo: Courtesy photo)
“If passed, Amendment 4 will enshrine in Florida’s Constitution late-term abortion well past the point when science says the baby can feel pain and eliminate the requirement for parental consent,” Michele Taylor, associate director of communications for the Florida Conference of Catholic Bishops, told the Register.
“If the amendment fails, it will be a great victory, but much work will remain,” she added. “Abortions will still continue in Florida, and we must continue to change hearts and communicate the truth about the harm of abortion and the gift of life.”
Even Trump, a Florida resident, has offered tepid opposition to Amendment 4. In August, Trump made waves in the pro-life movement when he told NBC News that a six-week abortion ban was “too short,” saying that “I’m going to be voting that we need more than six weeks.” Days later, however, his campaign clarified that he will indeed be voting “No” on Amendment 4.
Regardless of the outcome of the Amendment 4 vote, Archbishop Wenski believes Catholics must be prepared to fight for life long into the future.
“Fifty years of Roe v. Wade has certainly changed the culture,” he said. “Had it been overturned a year or two after its introduction, it would have been an easier fight for us. But we are going to have to be in this fight for the long haul. It’s not going to be an easy road ahead. We’re going to have to change the culture before we can change the politics.”
Marijuana Amendment
The battle over Florida’s Amendment 3, which would allow adults 21 or older to possess recreational marijuana, is following a similar trajectory to the abortion amendment: In both cases, the forces hoping for passage are heavily outraising and outspending their opponents.
Buttressed by marijuana dispensary giant Trulieve, which has contributed $83 million in support of Amendment 3, pro-marijuana activists have enjoyed significant advantages. The company stands to benefit tremendously if the amendment passes.
Meanwhile, its opponent, Vote No on 3, which is funded by the committee Keep Florida Clean, has amassed a comparatively paltry $12 million in its efforts to defeat the bill.
“The anti-side just doesn’t have any money,” MacManus noted. “They just started running ads, one about the danger of marijuana to children and pregnant women. I don’t know how effective they will be.”
The Mason-Dixon poll found that 58% of Floridians currently support Amendment 3, just two points shy of the 60% threshold needed to pass.
The Florida Conference of Catholic Bishops recently released a statement opposing the amendment.
“Legalizing marijuana makes it more accessible, removes the criminal penalties and stigma attributable to it, and creates the impression that it is safe to use,” the statement read.
The pro-Amendment 3 faction, however, boasts several Republican allies. Trump himself has declared support for the amendment, as have a few Republican state senators and political groups, such as Florida Young Republicans.
Prominent Florida U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz has been a vocal supporter of legalized marijuana in recent years, though he opposes Amendment 3 on the grounds that he doesn’t believe the issue should be resolved in the state Constitution.
Medical marijuana has been legal in Florida since 2016 when a ballot amendment on the issue passed with 71% of the vote. A “No” vote on Amendment 3 would have no effect on this law.
Sen. Scott Leads
The Senate race between incumbent Scott and challenger Mucarsel-Powell appears less on the edge than the ballot amendments, but close, nonetheless. A recent New York Times/Siena poll of the race shows Scott in the lead by 9 points. Scott, who was the governor of Florida before DeSantis, enjoys his largest advantage among white men without a college education, and he leads among all age groups.
Meanwhile, Mucarsel-Powell, who has gone “all in” on abortion,” leads among Hispanic and Black voters, though at a lower level than Democrats are expected to perform among minority voters to secure a victory in Florida.
The Mason-Dixon poll showed Scott leading by 7 points.
MacManus believes the final result will be narrower and that movement is still possible.
“She finally got some money to run ads on television,” she said. “Let’s put it this way: If there were an upset in Florida, it might be this race. It’s never been labeled a ‘toss-up’ by any national handicapper, but it wouldn’t shock me.”
There’s no local drama in the presidential race, but farther down the ballot things get more interesting — and nationally consequential. Read More