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Cannabis industry insiders are hopeful the next administration will support legalization—but they’re also prepared for another buzzkill.
The cannabis world has high hopes for the second Trump presidency. While 38 states have some form of legal marijuana sales—in a market that’s estimated to be $30 billion annually—cannabis is still illegal federally. This means plant-touching companies fall under a punitive tax code meant for illicit drug traffickers that eats into profitability. Despite the seeming ubiquity of dispensaries and Americans smoking, eating and drinking products infused with THC, unlicensed cannabis sales are still rampant, and legal intoxicating hemp products are sold everywhere. And while the Biden Administration began the historic move to reschedule marijuana under the Controlled Substances Act to a less severe category, that process has hit political and bureaucratic roadblocks.
A look at Trump’s first term in the White House does not exactly paint him as a friend of the industry. Within the first month of his presidency in 2017, the Trump administration put the recreational marijuana industry on notice, threatening “greater enforcement” of federal law. Then-U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions rescinded the Obama-era policies that allowed the recreational pot industry to flourish, sparking fear and paranoia across the industry. But eventually, Trump—who, like Biden, does not drink alcohol—left the state-licensed marijuana trade alone.
Since leaving office, however, his stance has evolved. On the campaign trail, Trump voiced his support for rescheduling, passing banking reform and reiterated his belief in a states’ rights approach to legalization. As a Palm Beach resident, he also expressed his support for Florida’s Amendment 3, which would have legalized recreational cannabis in the state—though the measure failed to reach the 60% threshold required for passage.
The evolution of Trump’s position is why Boris Jordan, the billionaire CEO and chairman of Connecticut-based Curaleaf, a vertically integrated cannabis company with 152 dispensaries across 19 states, says he sees a bright side to a second Trump presidency.
“I am cautiously optimistic,” Jordan tells Forbes. “The one thing that I know about Trump is that if he makes a commitment to do something, he, at a minimum, tries to do it. He doesn’t always succeed in doing it, but at least tries.”
Jordan says that because Trump “committed” to cannabis reform while campaigning this year and is “on record” with his views, a second Trump term will likely be good for the industry.
Jordan may also be one of the few Americans who is “disappointed” that former Representative Matt Gaetz, who is pro-cannabis but was dogged by allegations of sexual misconduct, withdrew his nomination for U.S. Attorney General. “That’s a big loss for us,” says Jordan. “I think we would have gotten even more than we wanted and even faster if he became the Attorney General.”
Last week, Trump nominated Pam Bondi, the former attorney general of Florida, to lead the Justice Department. During her tenure as Florida Attorney General, Bondi opposed the legalization of medical marijuana. The Sunshine State is now the country’s largest medical cannabis market with more than $2 billion in annual sales.
While Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has been nominated for secretary of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services and is known for supporting legalization, Trump nominated Marty Makary, a surgeon and author, to lead the FDA. Makary has warned that marijuana is a gateway drug and not as safe as people think.
But Jordan believes that “as long as it’s a person who is going to do what Trump tells them to do, I think we should be in good shape.”
The legendary litigator David Boies, who is preparing to argue his case seeking to federally legalize state-licensed marijuana in court in early December, shares Jordan’s optimism that a second Trump term will bode well for the cannabis industry.
“We are much more likely to see positive change,” says Boies. “Trump’s default is to let the states have it. His inclination is to let people do what they want.”
But Tate Bennett, the co-executive director of the Washington, D.C.-based nonprofit Coalition for Cannabis Policy, Education, and Regulation, says no one should be under the illusion that marijuana reform will be a top priority. The first 100 days of Trump’s presidency will be consumed by controlling inflation, and reforming immigration and the tax code, says Bennett. But CPEAR believes something good for the industry will come before Trump’s four years in office is over.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump was good for the cannabis industry,” she says. “He’s made it clear that change should happen regarding cannabis policies.”
Bennett is also keeping an open mind about Pam Bondi. “She is not Jeff Sessions,” says Bennett, who served in the first Trump Administration at the Environmental Protection Agency and as a special assistant to the president for agriculture. Bennett expects that “we will learn a lot about how she’s currently thinking about the issue through her Senate confirmation processes.”
U.S. Representative David Joyce, a Republican from Ohio who introduced a legalization bill in 2023, is counting on Trump’s pro-weed campaign promises. “I agree with President Trump that the existing federal cannabis framework is flawed,” Joyce tells Forbes. “I fully trust the President will pursue a path forward on responsible, public safety-centered reform.”
And while more Republicans appear to be embracing cannabis legalization as a right-leaning, states’ rights issue, the cannabis industry is used to disappointment. “I’ll be running the business on the basis that if we don’t get it, we’ve got to continue to operate,” says Jordan. “I’m not betting the house on the fact that anything’s going to happen because we’ve been let down so many times in the last 10 years.”
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